More cold winter of real estate in the back
Began at the end of 2009's this real estate regulation, with administrative means strong intervention market demand, and with the monetary policy tightening of credit, both for small and medium-sized enterprises and import and export enterprise, a conventional rigid demand, the improvement of the real demand, with the very serious damage. The government is also carried damage in the market economic operation of bad reputation. Can say, the control, the policy execution cost an extremely high, far more than the various regulation.
So, it is this, this real estate regulation must muster, stick to it, until returning to 'reasonable' house prices. As for "reasonable prices", the author thought that should not be more than concrete city house value income of more than 10 times, but now the general situation is more than 20 times as even 30 times.
And to further consolidate control results, we first need to clarify the current real estate situation. Obviously, the whole year the real estate market turnover in rapidly shrinking, especially in the second half of the year, a lot of real estate enterprise capital New Era Hats chain raise an alarm, individual buildings appear a lot of decline, but now after all is just a few cities in house prices is loose.
That is, in the most strict regulation policy history under, developers can still hard shoulder, and those large real estate business financial statements more shows, they complete the early this year for sales target difficulty is not great, like China vanke, evergrande, poly, such as the real estate big brother, sales in the first half performance is still a rapid growth (China vanke with 64.42 billion yuan in the top sales performance and increase of 81% last year, the breakthrough of the 'mark' little suspense billions. Evergrande followed by sales of 42.9 billion yuan, half a year, close to its 50 billion sales last year. At the same time, evergrande sales area 6 million square meters, sales in the breakthrough of the top.) And the local government to the land of the financial dependence on did not significantly improved, although all over this year's 11-year old king, but annual the land transfer income is still not small Numbers.
Clearly understand this reality, we will be prepared in advance, even if GDP growth of 8% to reach the bottom line, control policies are not necessarily to loose. Recently, the state council allow Shanghai, zhejiang, guangdong, deep in the pilot to send local debts, indicated NFL hats whether economic environment and difficult, and do not start comprehensive stimulus policies. And more likely to convert to gradually directional loose on the way, save for the real economy advantageous parts, not save speculators liquidity squeeze.
Not only that, for maximum reduce the estate control policies on the national economy of friendly fire, it is necessary to start the reform of the financial system, to make the new article 36 as soon as possible on rules and increase investment in foreign trade enterprise support and, at the same time, 1025 'planning according to ", further to increase the adjustment of economic structure, and gradually economy out of excessive dependence on the real estate market.
That way, real estate regulation can muster, and do not have trouble back at home. For developers, the future of the two or three years the real estate market continues to control the big picture up of deep, hurriedly seek bureau for the winter, already is particularly urgent.
And, of course, from a long-term perspective, real estate regulation is not let house prices will fall so simple. The real estate market linked to dozens of industry and the banking system in mud, where the entity economy to the marginal today, it relates directly to the adjustment of economic structure and the competitiveness of the industry upgrade, it is to make sure the only way of economic growth mode innovation.
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